The issue is tied to changes the Postal Service has made to the frequency of mail pickup and how mail is routed from rural areas. ProPublica compared the rate of mail ballot rejections from this year's primaries, between rural and population-dense areas in a handful of states that reliably track the data. They conclude that the agency's reforms are associated with a rise in rejections specifically in the sparsely populated jurisdictions:
Over the past three years, as mail volume continued to plummet and annual deficits ballooned, the Postal Service started consolidating the processing of first-class mail at larger regional plants instead of at smaller hubs closer to local post offices. Then, in a little-noted switch that mostly took effect after the 2024 election, the agency cut the frequency of mail pickups in half at many post offices 50 miles or more from these processing plants, from twice daily to once.
The changes often added a day or more to delivery time and, most importantly for ballots, pushed back postmarking, which doesn’t happen until mail reaches the regional centers.
In this year’s primary, the effects of the cuts were clearest in five states that make detailed data on mail-in ballots available: Washington, California, Ohio, North Carolina and Oregon. All have or recently had grace periods allowing ballots to count if they come in after Election Day as long as they’re postmarked by the deadline.
In these states, the number of ballots rejected for arriving late soared in counties affected by the service changes compared to 2022, ProPublica’s analysis showed.
Miranda Combs of Declare covered that little-noted switch early and often in 2026, focusing specifically on the concerns of the statewide clerks association in Illinois, which dedicated a sizable portion of an annual meeting to warning about the issue. She later spoke with Republican congressman Mike Bost of Illinois, with whom the association had been in contact and who joined a letter from several House Republicans to the Postal Service to ask about the effects of the mail consolidation reform on collection and delivery, including of mail ballots. The agency tried to allay fears. According to ProPublica, they've turned out to have at least some merit.
(Chris Deaton)