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Declare Wire

Election news from around the country, in brief, with Declare’s read.

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Report Warns of Hampered Monitoring of Foreign Influence Ops

In recent years, federal monitors, private companies, and nonprofit watchdogs have developed working relationships to identify, warn of, and mitigate election disinformation that emanates from foreign sources. That tissue may have atrophied, says a report from the government technology-focused publication Nextgov:

State officials say they are receiving fewer election-specific federal briefings than in previous cycles, while others who track foreign influence have observed routine exchanges with government and technology companies fall away. Some also note that federal workforce departures have weakened cooperation with outside partners, including social media platforms, to track false information online.

While the federal government continues to gather intelligence on foreign election threats, some of those who lean on those findings say it has become less reliable in sharing information with non-federal researchers and state officials responsible for countering those campaigns. That cooperation began to weaken before President Donald Trump returned to office, and his administration has since dismantled several programs dedicated to countering the problem.

One other excerpt worth highlighting: “An office can retain its responsibilities while losing the relationships that helped it do the work, according to a person familiar with U.S. efforts to address influence operations. But someone who once knew exactly whom to call may find that their counterpart has departed, or that the people still there are unsure whether leadership supports exchanging information.”

Consider two ways of evaluating the “war” for our attention on social media, particularly around Election Day, when rumors and random reports of misbehavior and controversies fly about. One is that it’s between good domestic guys and bad domestic guys, i.e., the political party/ideological movement you like and the one you don’t. Another is that it’s between foreign malefactors and just us — just the Stars ‘n Stripes. This story is about the second.

Foreign operators try and know, with at least some effectiveness, that they can leverage the “fog of war” in an instantly updating online environment to confuse us and turn us against each other. The partnerships described by Nextgov are intended to mitigate those effects. If those partnerships are weaker, it becomes all the more important for social media users to resist snap judgments about shocking claims, for the sake of — seriously — national unity.

Ginsberg: Issue of ‘Nonqualified Voters’ Overstated

Declare contributor Ben Ginsberg was one of a handful of experts in election law and administration that the New York Times surveyed for thoughts in advance of Election Day. One of the questions was: “What’s the biggest red herring — something people worry about that isn’t a big deal?” Ben’s response, as well as those of Jessica Furst Johnson (former general counsel to three national GOP committees), Parker Poling (former executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee), and Derek Muller (Notre Dame law professor and frequent Federalist Society panelist), are worth reading:

Ginsberg: That final election results aren’t reliable and that nonqualified voters are impacting those results.

…

Johnson: Fear-mongering around the idea that the armed forces, the National Guard or ICE (or all of them) will interfere with the election.

Poling: When casual watchers of election results don’t understand that vote reporting is not linear — it’s not like a road race — and accuse the media or administrators of manufacturing votes.

Muller: That Speaker Mike Johnson will steal control of the House after the election. He won’t be speaker as of noon on Jan. 3.

Taken as a whole, the responses of those surveyed reflect the ongoing divide between digital reality and reality-reality. In the first, elections are perceived to have tons of vulnerabilities, based not necessarily on events in the real world but sensational characterizations of them, which in turn influence political behavior. In the second, of “reality-reality,” the vulnerabilities are the sensational characterizations themselves and the reactions to them — whether public opinion of institutional legitimacy or, to use that term again, (eventual) political behavior, such as presidential action.

Differences of opinion about the world as it “actually” is are as old as ancient Greek philosophy. But the issue here is whether to base a worldview on data such as the Heritage Foundation’s Election Fraud Map or Declare’s Election Integrity Map, or to base it on assumptions about the unknown or unproven. To the first crowd, “You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts,” applies. To the second, it’s more like, “You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts — yet not all the facts can be known, and we assume the ones that aren’t prove our case, or at least provide us with the justification for ‘asking questions’ in perpetuity.” Tough sell there.

‘Tens of Thousands’ of Mail Ballots at Lateness Risk After USPS Change, Study Finds

That estimate is atop the typical number of mail ballots rejected for being late in three specific states: California, North Carolina, and Washington, which publish categorical information about late-arriving ballots. Elena Patel of the Brookings Institute published the report, which tries to project the effects of the Postal Service’s “Regional Transportation Optimization” initiative (RTO), in which rural mail can take extra time to deliver as it’s routed through “hubs:”

In this new analysis of the 2026 primaries in California, North Carolina, and Washington, I find that RTO exposure roughly doubled the rate at which mail ballots were rejected for arriving late. Rejections for every other reason did not move differently where RTO applies, and before RTO, the places it now covers rejected late ballots at about the same rate as places it does not, in both the two preceding federal primaries and across a decade of general elections nationally.

Using data from the 2022 and 2024 general elections, I estimate that roughly 40% of mail ballots returned by voters (16.6 million) come from places where the nearest post office is covered by RTO. If the same relationship holds in November, tens of thousands of additional ballots could be rejected for arriving late, against a recent average of about 115,000 late rejections. The remedy is not complicated. Voters in covered places can mail their ballots a few days earlier, consistent with what USPS has long advised. Knowing which places those are is harder. USPS and election officials should make that easy to find out.

Declare covered election officials as far back as February who were concerned about the RTO’s consequences for mail ballots, specifically in “postmark states” which count late-arriving ballots just as long as the USPS has indicated it took possession by Election Day. See: “Election Clerks Fearful That USPS Will Not Prioritize Mail Ballots,” “How Clerks Respond When D.C. Throws Them a Curveball,” and “House Republicans Ask USPS to ‘Reconsider’ Rule Affecting Mail Ballots,” all from Miranda Combs.
(Chris Deaton)

Federal Memo: Utah Postman Tossed Mail Ballots to ‘Lighten His Workload’

A key detail from the Department of Justice about its single charge against a Utah postal worker for “secretion, destruction, and delay of mail:”

But on June 3, 2026, (defendant DAMON MATAI) SEEI threw away some of the mail that he had been entrusted to deliver into a dumpster in a church parking lot. (See Exhibits 1-2). He later admitted in an interview that he threw away the mail because he wanted to “lighten his workload,” presumably so he could go home earlier without delivering all the mail on his route. The mail that SEEI threw away into the dumpster included advertisements and the approximately 300 mail-in ballots that he was entrusted to deliver to Eagle Mountain voters that day so they could vote by mail in the June 23, 2026 primary election.

…

… He claims he simply made a “poor decision” out of “frustration” and “laziness.”

Needless to say, Mr. Seei won’t be delivering the mail again anytime soon (as the DOJ memo notes, he “no longer works for the United States Post Office”). But not because he’s been charged with an election crime — rather because he admitted to being a negligent mailman. It’s an unfortunate story for the primary election voters of Eagle Mountain, Utah, where the alleged offense took place, but obviously not indicative of any broader issues with mail voting (unless there are fears that postal workers will soon en masse say “ah, screw it”). Any criticisms of the practice would need to account for evidence that’s actually relevant. (Chris Deaton)

Supreme Court Allows Resumption of SAVE Tool for Voter Checks

The Trump administration had worked with some states to use the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) tool, originally meant to confirm benefits eligibility, to check for noncitizens on voter rolls. A federal district court halted it in June, in a decision largely about data privacy, before the Supreme Court intervened in late-September:

[T]he Supreme Court majority found that a 1996 law explicitly allows DHS to obtain information on citizenship and immigration from other federal agencies. The federal government also has “an obligation to respond” to states seeking to verify citizenship.

“The order below prevents the Federal Government from using the program it believes is best suited to the task,” the majority wrote in the unsigned order.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented, joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor. The database has long been seen to fall under federal privacy laws, she wrote, and there are real risks that legitimate voter registrations could be mistakenly revoked.

“The harm caused by burdening or disenfranchising even a few lawful voters outweighs the nonexistent harm that the Government experiences when it is prevented from taking an action that it likely lacks the authority to take,” Jackson wrote.

Contributor Stephen Richer has written about the good and the bad of SAVE as a voter verification tool. The “good” boils down to it being one of multiple resources that are checked against each other, when used responsibly. The “bad” is that . . . it hasn’t always been used so responsibly. When consulted by itself, with no other data sources, it has resulted in the wrongful removal of many voters.

Relevant to the November elections, the Supreme Court’s decision was issued well inside the federal 90-day window during which states are prohibited from removing registered voters as part of “list maintenance.” That means attempted bulk removals based on the use of SAVE is likely to be a non-issue before Election Day. Afterward, the debate about its legality will resume.